Simply Invest - Goh Yang Chye

Goh Yang Chye:
Financial headlines are designed to shock you into making impulsive decisions, and their market predictions are notoriously inaccurate.  Following them will be detrimental to your portfolio. 

My Notes:
We cannot invest based on financial news as they are use by Market Makers to move shares up or down.

Goh Yang Chye:
Only one person stepped up to the challenge: Ted Seides of Protégé Partners. To cut a long story short, Seides conceded defeat in May 2017, six months before the ten-year deadline. At that point, Buffett’s chosen index fund, the Vanguard S&P 500, was up over 80 per cent in returns, while Seides’ basket of selected hedge funds was only up around 20 per cent.

My Notes:
Never believe that full-time funds managers are better than yourself.  No one cares about your own money then yourself.

Goh Yang Chye:

The market has bottomed after a crash. The mood is one of general despair as many investors have sustained huge losses from selling their assets after significant drops in value. In the midst of this gloom, other investors—particularly institutional investors with large reserves of cash—nonetheless see an opportunity to quietly pick up stocks at a discount.  They do so gradually, so as not to alert others. Price movement is therefore slow, making investing undesirable for many individual investors who cannot afford the fees and lack of revenue from a seemingly indefinite sideways market.

My Notes:
It the old saying that retail investors should not try to time the market but to in the market at all times, good or bad. Doom and Gloom have repeated many times but many investors still find it difficult to buy when all the financial news are bad and stock price keeps falling.  The alternative is to buy ETF using time diversification. 

Goh Yang Chye:
Since the 1970s, the world has suffered multiple crises and periods of turmoil that hit markets with serious sell-offs. There was the oil crisis, Black Monday, the Gulf War, the dotcom bubble, 9/11, the mortgage bubble and the European debt crisis, among others. Over and over again, we saw periods of economic instability and crises that caused thousands of investors to panic and rush to sell their assets. Many were frightened at the thought of losing everything if they stayed put.  Yet if an investor had put a dollar into global equities in 1970 and kept it through all these catastrophes, that dollar would have multiplied 59 times by the end of 2017!

My Notes:
Time in the market versus timing the market.

Goh Yang Chye:
As markets work well and go up in the long run, it is an effective and convenient way to invest. It is also cheap, because ETF managers trade infrequently and have a large
volume of securities, keeping trading costs low.

My Notes:
Invest in ETF like the S&P 500 is a stress free way of putting your money to work.
 

Goh Yang Chye:
A simple example would be how investing in stocks has a far greater likelihood of growing your wealth compared to depositing your money in a savings account.  Although there may be years when stocks plummet while your savings stay safe, it is the stocks that will be growing your money in the long run.

My Notes:
No risk No gain.  Money in saving deposits will slowly erode by inflation.

Goh Yang Chye:
Therefore, if you want to succeed where the majority of investors fail, you have to respond and behave in ways that the majority of investors do not. In tandem with being aware of how your instincts might work against you, a key skill is learning how to stay calm, collected and focused, regardless of what may be happening in the markets and the often provocative headlines that follow.

My Notes:
Never follow the crowds as they often like to invest when news was good but price is often at the peak.

Goh Yang Chye:
Market crashes are terrifying. It doesn’t matter how prepared you are, or how safe your own investments are; even if you are not directly affected, you would invariably be exposed to the fear and confusion from those around you. When markets collapse and people find most of their savings suddenly wiped out, even if just on paper, the panic can lead to harried
responses to stem the damage.  Ironically, this panicked response is the very thing that makes the damage real.
 
My Notes:
Market cycle will always exist, you need to invest during dooms time in order enjoy the monetary rewards during the booms time.  That is why only invest your spare cash which you do not need so that you will not be succumb to panic selling.

Goh Yang Chye:
However, while investors are often dumbfounded and surprised by a stagnant market, the history of the S&P 500 index reveals that there have been many periods in the past where the market has gone sideways for many years. Sometimes, this meant investors getting a zero per cent or even a negative return for as long as 10 to 15 years!  That is a very long time to leave money idle, hoping for a positive return that may never materialise.

My Notes:
Market can stay stagnant longer that you thought, if you does not have holding power, it is better to put the money into saving deposits, at least you get some interest back even though it is not able to cover inflation.  Most importantly, it allow you to sleep soundly.

Goh Yang Chye:
Most investors are probably familiar with the old investment adage of "buy low, sell high”. That is why many of them ironically react to market highs with the same anxiety and panic that comes with a market collapse.  Should they sell while things are going well? What if they do, and the market goes even higher?  What if they do not, and the market crashes? Often, the fear of loss wins out over the fear of not attaining extra returns, and investors decide to sell rather than take the risk of waiting. 

My Notes:
Never invest with your emotions or become FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).  When Bitcoin keep going up, every investors only thought about higher and higher price, no one will think that prices will crash.  That is the gist of the investing or trading world.

Goh Yang Chye:
Imagine if there were a market crash happening right now. The financial media would predictably respond with panicked headlines.  Our screens would be full of distraught newscasters trumpeting doom and destruction. Surrounded by all this information (through television, email, newspapers and social media), it is only natural that investors would pick up on that fear and react to escape the threat. Most will then end up stressing out over the losses they sustain, before moving on to stress out over the gains they miss when the market eventually recovers.

My Notes:
I can relate to this as it happens to me before during COVID where countries begin their shutdown.  The 'this time is different' really caught me.  Didn't expect the super quick reversal to a bullish market.  Damn!

Notes from reading the book:
Simply Invest - Goh Yang Chye

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