Always Plan Your Trade Based On The Probability 

There are times when you thought it was a perfect trade.  You have time your entry perfectly, manage your position size and stops and yet still end up losing money?  At other times you can buy a stock on a hunch and find the company whose stock you just bought announces they are being taken over at a huge premium.

So you begin to wonder is it all about the money that you win or lose.  Was it the first one a bad trade and the second one a good trade? If not what is it that constitutes a "good trade?" We are here to make money, so trades that make money are definitely good! However unless we can do it consistently and make more than we lose, we will never be a profitable trader.

For this reason you should not be tempted to define your trades solely on results. In fact, I will say that a "good trade" can be declared regardless of your results!

Now you might be shaking your head at this point. The problem with viewing good trades as solely being those that made you money is that this is actually out of your hands. As an analogy consider a game of poker when you are dealt a pair of Aces. Now if you could get you opponent all-in before the flop with this hand, it would be considered good play wouldn't it?

However imagine your opponent has a pair of Jacks and hits another Jack on the river to beat you. Does this suddenly mean that your play to get them all-in was bad? Of course not

You should always plan your trade based on the probability it will make money and know what you will do in the foreseeable circumstances and act on it. Thus when you enter a trade you must have a game plan. You then need to manage your trade along the way. When conditions change you must adjust.

Seeing every twist and turn before they happen is not a requirement for good trading. What you have to do is evaluate the situation as it unfolds, and make the necessary adjustments to your stop loss levels or price targets to the best of your ability.

The market does not care what you think it should do, it will do it anyway. If you do not react and adapt, then it becomes a bad trade. Sometimes the market will leave you with a smaller gain than you originally thought, or even a loss, but as long as the method you used was solid this is not an issue.

The old adage about a small loss being a good loss is true. You should pat yourself on the back when you take a loss if it is the right thing to do, in the same way as you would if you took a profit in the right way for your system.

Imagine that you are the pilot of your trade. You know where you want to go and navigate towards that goal. However should a storm be raging over your choice of destination then you must make a safe landing at another airport. Exiting your trade at a spot not originally planned does not mean your choice was flawed.

It is important to remember that if the set-up was good at the outset, then taking the trade was the right thing to do, regardless of whether you get stopped out for a loss or if you realize a huge gain.

If you are doing that, then you are making good trades regardless of an individual result. Good results come from good trades. Making good trades is not only which trades you choose to enter, but also how you manage each trade.

So when you review your trades, as you should periodically, you should review them from the point of view of whether you did the right thing at each step - Was the entry good? Did you keep a level head? Did you panic sell or not sell when you should have? Over the long run, were you approximately right on the potential profit you could get from a trade?

As long as you are making your decisions objectively and taking the what is objectively likely to be the best course of action then you are making good trades and good results will follow.

Therefore, go out there and trade well.
 

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