Cycle of Stock Market

The movement of stock prices is analogous to that of a rubble ball in motion.  When a ball is thrown up into the air, you can observe that it will leave your hand at a speed.  However, upon reaching its peak, you will notice that the ball begins to lose its velocity and starts to fall.  Now observe what happens when it hits the ground.  There will be a rebound, of course, when conditions are favorable.

Such is the cycle of the stock market.  It neither moves upward unrestricted nor does it fall into a bottomless pit.  At a certain level, the market will react and this will be reflected by the movement of the market index.  The cycle of the stock market is simply a non-stop process of stock price fluctuations.

It can thus be concluded that to be winner in this so-called get-rich-quick game, one should sell while the market is on an upward course and purchase stocks when they are at bargain prices, during the period when the market is on a downward course.  In reality, most potential investors tend to shy away from the market as it begins to turn sour and prices are spiraling downwards instead of making an effort to select those stocks whose prices have now become competitive.

Buying stocks under a situation of falling prices can be very disheartening.  Eventually, you may find that you have neither the funds nor the guts to keep on averaging out your purchases.  As an ordinary investor, it would be much better to buy only when the market begins to turn round and have shown signs of bullishness after a bear raid.

Of course, to buy when an uptrend is sighted means that the stock prices are no longer at rock bottom but would have actually risen somewhat.  It is perfectly all right to buy shares with their prices leaning a little on the high side so long as there is a chance for the particular share to move up the scale in the foreseeable future to realize your profit.  After all, the most important factor that determines your purchases is to be able to secure a profit.

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"When companies deteriorate, they usually do so for one of two reasons: Either there has been a deterioration of management, or the company no longer has the prospect of increasing the markets for its product in the way it formerly did." 
*-- Philip A. Fisher - Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
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