Are You Bullish or Bearish?

In a bull market, people wait eagerly for dips, hoping to buy, feeling foolish they had not gotten in earlier. This eagerness to buy on dips limits the downside -- and people know it does, which feeds the bullishness, which can last a long time. At the top, there may even be books with ridiculous titles like, "Dow 36,000".

In a bear market, people wait eagerly for rallies, hoping to sell, feeling foolish they missed the chance to sell much higher. This eagerness to sell limits the rallies -- and people know it does, which feeds the gloom. This, too, can go on for a long time.

Ultimately, of course a bull market will be brought down by...something (usually, rising interest rates followed by a recession), and stock prices that have climbed above all reasonable levels of valuation will decline back towards those levels. Indeed, they will often keep falling well past reasonable valuations.

And then at some point -- very quickly or only after a long time (one knows with hindsight) (I think I prefer confirming with TA) -- the bear market will end, as selling pressure is exhausted and pyschology turns (possibly because the Fed has signaled that high interest rates can safely begin a downward trend.)

So who knows where we are? You decide, are you personally eager for dips so you can buy? -- or for rallies so you can sell? And how will you feel five minutes from now, when stocks have switched directions?

To remind people not to be caught by falling knifes and that we're still in a bear market.

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